What is a penalty bet? Is it easy to win?

If you're feeling exhausted from calculating Handicap, Over/Under, or Asian Handicap bets in football matches, you can try your luck with penalty bets. As we know, penalty situations are often unpredictable, making this type of bet essentially a 50/50 chance against the bookmakers. Moreover, there are various types of penalty bets available for players.

Is penalty betting easy to win?

The penalty bet encompasses all types of bets related to penalty situations. This type of bet is usually not common in smaller matches. They are only offered by bookmakers in matches that attract a lot of attention to diversify the range of bets. So what types of bets are included in the penalty bet? Let's find out together with Win tips.

Penalty or No Penalty Bet

Although not very common, this type of bet does appear on the betting list for some matches. Players simply choose whether there will be a penalty or not. Typically, the odds for a penalty to occur are much higher than for no penalty because penalties don't happen frequently in matches.

Which Team Will Be Awarded the Next Penalty?

This is another unusual bet where players predict which team will be awarded the next penalty. Similar to the Penalty or No Penalty bet, this bet is not commonly offered on smaller betting platforms. The odds for both teams are usually high and relatively equal. If there's no penalty in the match, both bets lose.

Handicap Shootout Bet

This is perhaps a more familiar type of bet for players. It's prevalent in playoff matches of major tournaments like the Champions League, Euro, or World Cup. Recently, it appeared frequently during the Euro and Copa America tournaments.

The rules of the Handicap Shootout bet are similar to regular Handicap bets in a match. The bookmaker websites selects a favored team and gives them a handicap such as 0.5, 1.5, etc. There are no handicaps like 0.25, 0.75, 1.25, etc., as the match will definitely have a winner after the shootout. Now let's delve into each type of Handicap bet within penalty bets.

0.5 Handicap Bet

The 0.5 Handicap, also known as the half Handicap, is common in Penalty Handicap bets. In this bet, you simply select the winning team after the shootout between the favored and underdog teams. If the favored team wins, players who bet on them win, and vice versa.

1.5 Handicap Bet

The 1.5 Handicap bet is less common. In this type of bet, the favored team must win by a margin of 2 goals or more to win the bet. Usually, the shootout has to be decided within the first 10 penalty kicks because after that, a lead of 1 goal is enough to win. On the other hand, the underdog team only needs to win or lose by a margin of 1 goal to win the bet.

Over/Under Penalty Shootout Bet

Apart from Handicap Shootout bets, we cannot overlook Over/Under Penalty Shootout bets. Over/Under in a shootout follows similar rules to Over/Under bets in regular matches. The bookmaker sets a goal line, and players predict whether the total number of successful penalty kicks will be over or under that line.

Recently, there's been an increase in shootouts ending with under results due to more missed shots by players. We saw this trend in both the Euro and Copa America tournaments. For instance, the Euro semi-final between Italy and Spain had only 6 successful penalty kicks, while the Copa America semi-final had just 5 successful kicks. The increasing number of highly skilled penalty-saving goalkeepers contributes to this trend.

6.5 Over/Under Bet

The rules for the 6.5 Over/Under bet are similar to regular Over/Under bets. If both teams successfully convert 7 or more penalty kicks, the shootout results in an over, and players who bet on over win, while those who bet on under lose. If both teams convert 6 or fewer penalty kicks, the shootout results in an under, and players who bet on under win.

7.5 Over/Under Bet

The rules are essentially the same as the 6.5 Over/Under bet, but here both teams must score more than 1 goal for the shootout to result in an over. Specifically, if both teams convert only 7 penalty kicks, the shootout results in an under, and if they convert 8 or more, it results in an over. Other bets like 5.5, 8.5, 9.5 are less common but follow similar rules.

Which Team Will Take the First Penalty?

If you don't want to delve too deeply into the aforementioned bets, you can try a straightforward 50/50 bet: which team will take the first penalty. Here, there are only two options for players, and the odds are usually around 1.90 for both choices. Players can know whether they've won or lost their bet after the first round of penalty kicks.

Effective Penalty Betting Strategies

We've analyzed the various types of penalty bets you're likely to encounter. Although betting on penalties is essentially a coin flip, there are still some tips to improve your chances of winning when placing bets on them.

Objective Advantages

Even a slight objective advantage can significantly impact a player's performance during a penalty shootout. Therefore, it's crucial to analyze which team has the upper hand. Factors like home ground advantage, proximity to home supporters, and the order of penalty kicks (first or second) can all influence the outcome.

Being close to home supporters is particularly important, often overlooked by many. The pressure of taking a penalty kick is already immense, but doing so in front of tens of thousands of home fans amplifies that tension manyfold. Home fans know how to unnerve opposing players, whether by jeering as the opponent steps up to the ball or even shining laser pointers in their eyes.

Monitor Player Psychology

Pay attention to the psychological state of players during the match. A playoff match lasting 120 or 90 minutes naturally induces considerable tension among players. When it comes to penalty kicks, having a strong mentality is crucial. Therefore, understanding the psychological state of players is vital. You need to observe which team appears more composed during the match. Typically, signs of nervousness become more evident towards the end of the match.

For example, in the penalty shootout between Italy and Spain during the recent Euro semi-final, the stark difference in the psychological state of the two teams' captains was evident. Chiellini from the Italian team appeared extremely confident, laughing and chatting with the referee. In contrast, Alba from the Spanish team showed signs of nerves. As we know, Italy defeated Spain 4-2 in the shootout.

Analyze the List of Penalty Takers

Because psychology plays a significant role in penalty kicks, it's essential to analyze whether penalty takers have a strong mentality. Some players are renowned for their penalty-taking abilities, such as Ronaldo, Bruno, or Jorginho from Chelsea. However, there are also exceptional players who perform well overall but struggle with penalties, such as Messi.

England's Failure with Three Young Players

Young players often lack the mental fortitude required for penalty kicks. We saw how England lost their championship hopes by allowing three young players to take the final three penalties. Prior to that, their two senior players performed admirably, putting England ahead 2-1. It was a drastic decision by coach Southgate that didn't pay off.

However, even seemingly reliable penalty takers can miss occasionally. As we know, Jorginho missed his penalty in the match against England, but fortunately for him, his teammate rectified the situation afterward. This indicates that predicting penalty outcomes is never 100% accurate.

Analyze the Goalkeepers of Both Teams

A crucial aspect of penalty betting is analyzing the goalkeeping prowess of both teams. During the recent Euro and Copa America tournaments, we witnessed several goalkeepers shine in penalty shootouts, securing victories for their teams. Notable mentions include Simons from Spain, Donnarumma from Italy in the Euro final, and Emiliano Martinez from Argentina in the Copa America semi-final.

Martinez saved three penalties in the semi-final against Colombia

Facing goalkeepers renowned for penalty saves adds significant psychological pressure on players. Teams with such quality goalkeepers have a high chance of winning. Therefore, players need to understand the penalty-saving records of both teams' goalkeepers. Some goalkeepers perform exceptionally well during matches but struggle with penalties. For example, despite his stability in regular matches, De Gea has not saved any penalties in recent years.

So, we've covered everything you need to know about penalty betting. We've introduced you to most of the bet types available in current football betting and how free bookmaker offers profit from these bets. If a match suddenly heads to a shootout, remember to try your luck with these bets.